The Future August 2025 Issue

ISSN 2753-3670

The Future is a newsletter periodically published by The Future Institute from First Floor, East, Business Centre, 93 Greenfield Rd, London E1 1EJ. This newsletter aims to chronicle the major events and developments in the societies of the emerging nations with the potential of impacting their future. This publication offers snippets of news analysis that might be advantageous to the academics, policymakers, social and political workers, students and various organisations.

Contributing Editors: Mohammad Hossain, Dr Nazmus Sakib, Dr Faroque Amin, and Tariq Adnan

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Israeli genocide in Gaza continues unabated as hundreds of Palestinian children die from extreme hunger

An Israeli TV commentator recently claimed that the impunity enjoyed by Israel regarding Palestine had reached a level where Israel could kill a 100 Palestinians every day, and no one would even notice anymore. While this did create a ripple of anger on social media, it has been largely true. The devastating scenes of catastrophic hunger, emaciated skeletal children, and bombed and maimed Palestinians, seem to be unable to move the hearts of world leaders into any meaningful action, despite flooding social media, and also becoming a regular feature on many mainstream media. The problem is not that the news of Israel-induced famine, death by starvation, or daily war crimes against children, women and men is not getting out – the genocide is a live-streamed one, and no one can say they did not know. The problem is that world leaders seem exceptionally paralysed regarding taking any action other than condemnation, or that they are too busy hiding their complicity in Israeli war crimes. Massive public demonstrations have been seen in the West as well as Muslim countries, but the leaders have been content with paying lip service – the borders remain closed, and the food entering Gaza is far below the required minimum of 600 trucks daily. Some countries, such as Britain, UAE, France and Canada, have colluded with Israel to air drop aid over Gaza, which is not only dangerous but has only served to deflect from the issue of blocked aid and daily massacre of Palestinian children and men and women in Gaza.

While the US has directly aided Israel in its killing of Palestinians at so called GHF aid centres, Britain and France have made the show of threatening to ‘recognize’ a Palestinian state if Israel did not make a ceasefire and allow in aid within September, something that has unsurprisingly absolutely failed to deter Israel, which continues to receive military and financial support from the same countries. Instead, Israel has announced its intention to fully and permanently occupy Gaza to eliminate all ‘problems,’ whether of Israeli hostages, Hamas, or deportation of the indigenous Palestinian population. And currently, that is where the Israeli state and military seem to be headed, with previous negotiations with Hamas simply a way to buy time to eliminate more of the Palestinian population. The latest death toll stands at 62,614 Palestinians, although the real figures are believed to be several times higher. The UN’s human rights office reported that at least 1,373 aid seekers have been killed in Gaza since May, when the GHF began operating in the enclave. Of those, 859 people were killed near GHF-run aid sites and 514 were killed while waiting along food convoy routes, the office said, adding that most of these killings were committed by the Israeli military. The US, Israel’s main ally in the Gaza genocide, has been working overtime to allow the genocide to materialize, whether through supply of weapons, aid, or providing political cover to the IDF and Israeli politicians, several of whom are wanted for war crimes trials by the ICC. It is no wonder that a wanted war criminal like Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has written to the Nobel Foundation nominating Donald Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize as a small token of gratitude.

References: Fernández, B. (2025, July 9). Who better than Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize? Al Jazeera. Jaber, S. (2025, July 22). Israel is proceeding with annexation, and there is only one way to stop it. Al Jazeera. Staff, A. J. (2025, August 1). Israel ‘engineering massacres’ as more Palestinians starve to death in Gaza. Al Jazeera. UK to recognise Palestinian state by September if no Gaza ceasefire reached. (2025, July 29). Middle East Eye.

UN rapporteur publishes damning report against global companies colluding with Israeli genocide; sanctioned by US

On July 3, 2025, UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese presented a landmark report titled “From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide” to the UN Human Rights Council, documenting how at least 48 multinational corporations—including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Lockheed Martin, Caterpillar, Palantir, BNP Paribas, Barclays, PIMCO, and Vanguard—are deeply complicit in sustaining Israel’s occupation and military operations in Gaza and the West Bank. Albanese has shown how these companies have “profited from the Israeli economy of illegal occupation, apartheid, and now genocide,” supplying weapons, surveillance infrastructure, technology, and financial services. Her report called on companies to divest from all activities linked to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory, which is illegal under international law, and recommended legal accountability for corporate executives, sanctions, as well as an immediate arms embargo on Israel.

Following the report, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced sanctions against Albanese, accusing her of waging “a campaign of political and economic warfare” against the United States and Israel by urging the ICC to investigate officials, companies, and executives linked to alleged war crimes. He also claimed her actions demonstrated antisemitism and support for terrorism. The sanctions reportedly bar U.S. persons and entities from engaging in transactions with her and may include visa restrictions or asset freezes. Albanese called the sanctions “obscene” and likened them to “mafia style intimidation.” She asserted that the sanctions recently imposed on her by the Trump administration will have serious impacts on her life and work. The US move against Albanese comes in the aftermath of an earlier unsuccessful U.S. pressure campaign to force the international body to remove her from her post.

References: Francesca Albanese says US sanctions over her criticism of Israel will seriously impact her life. (2025, July 30). AP news. Marsi, F. (2025, July 1). UN report lists companies complicit in Israel’s ‘genocide’: Who are they? Al Jazeera.

Iran takes new measures to bolster defence in the aftermath of the 12 day war

Following the 12-day conflict with Israel and U.S. airstrikes targeting its nuclear infrastructure in mid-June, Iran passed a resolution to suspend all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), prohibiting future IAEA inspections without approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council—a step viewed by Tehran as necessary to protect its sovereignty and nuclear scientists. Iranian officials have been increasingly suspicious of the IAEA and have alleged that the agency may have played a role in passing over sensitive data and information pertaining to Iranian nuclear facilities to Israel and various Western powers. Moreover, with Iran's military heavily affected by the war, China is emerging as top candidate to provide advanced weaponry as well as related services that could help Tehran reestablish deterrence as tensions continue to simmer across the Middle East.

Seeing that the risk of war with Israel and the US remains high with nuclear talks in the balance, Iran has replaced air defence systems damaged during last month's clash with Israel, a senior military official said. Moreover, the country has also been seeking to buy advanced Chinese J-10 fighter jets, and have been leading high level negotiations in this regard. Simultaneously, Tehran's pursuance of a strategic break from reliance on the U.S.-controlled Global Positioning System (GPS) is also a move in this lane. In mid July, Deputy Communications Minister Ehsan Chitsaz confirmed plans to transition critical infrastructure—navigation, agriculture, transport, even internet infrastructure—to China’s BeiDou satellite system, citing repeated GPS jamming during the war and increasing demand for technological independence.

References: Al-Azzawi, J. (2025, July 27). Iran’s plan to abandon GPS is about much more than technology. Al Jazeera. Iran pivots from Russia to China in quest for new weapons after Israel war. (2025, July 19). Newsweek. Iran president signs law suspending cooperation with IAEA. (2025, July 2). Al Jazeera.

Vietnam joins BRICS; US puts additional tariffs on BRICS countries from August 1

Vietnam has officially been admitted as a BRICS partner country under the bloc’s expansion strategy, marking a significant milestone in the global engagement of the country. Brazil, which holds the BRICS presidency in 2025, announced on June 13 that Vietnam had become the tenth partner country alongside nations including Malaysia, Thailand, and Nigeria. However, Vietnam’s entrance into BRICS comes amidst growing friction with Washington. In April, the U.S. had announced punitive tariffs of up to 145 percent on Chinese goods, and threatened up to 46 percent tariffs on Vietnamese exports as part of broader trade enforcement measures that had sought to strong-arm China and the various countries through which it concluded business with the US into subservience. While Vietnam had hoped to attain an average tariff rate of 10-15 percent through back-door negotiations, a Trump post on July 2 threw everything askew, when the president posted on his family-owned platform, Truth Social, that he had negotiated a 20% flat rate on all imports from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on “Chinese transshipments” in exchange for Vietnam eliminating all tariffs on U.S. imports. Although Vietnamese officials did not publicly contradict Trump, negotiations continue behind the scenes, and the country’s move to join BRICS showcases the country’s desire to keep its options open.

On the other hand, Trump had signed an executive order at the end of July imposing new tariffs on imports from BRICS nations. Beginning August 1, a 25 percent tariff will apply to Indian goods entering the United States over its buying of Russian oil, while Brazilian imports will face a 50 percent tariff increase over its political trial of Trump right-wing ally Bolsonaro. Trump initially unveiled sweeping import taxes on goods coming into the U.S. from nearly every country in April, sending global markets into a panic. Although the Trump administration has repeatedly stated that foreign companies, and therefore the countries they represent, will bear the tariffs and absorb the costs, opponents and economists have argued that it will be the American consumer who pays the price, with companies passing on the costs through higher prices. Most of the tariffs have since been postponed twice, allowing time for bilateral negotiations.

References: Here Is What to Know About Trump’s 50% Tariffs on Brazil. (2025, July 31). The New York Times. Russia responds to Donald Trump's tariff threat. (2025, July 31). Newsweek. U.S.-Viet Nam trade deal: What happened and what to expect. (2025, July 31). The Vietnamese Magazine. Vietnam joins BRICS as a Partner Country. (2025, June 13). BRICS Brasil - Português (Brasil).

Modi government and the Election Commission of India takes sweeping measures to disenfranchise Indian Muslims

A controversial move by India’s top election body, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has drawn widespread criticism, after forcing nearly 80 million voters’ documents to be re-scrutinised in a bid to weed out “foreign illegal immigrants.” It has prompted widespread fears of mass disenfranchisement and deportations of Indian Muslims in the world’s largest democracy. On June 24, the ECI had announced that each of the nearly 80 million voters in the eastern Indian state of Bihar would need to re-register as voters by July 26, and that those unable to do so would lose their right to vote and be reported as “suspected foreign nationals”, which could mean that they could even face jail or deportation. Legislative elections in Bihar are expected to be held in October or November. Coming ahead of state elections, critics say that the election monitor’s move has led to confusion, panic and a scramble for documents among some of the country’s poorest communities in rural Bihar. Politicians from India’s principal opposition party, the Indian National Congress, along with its Bihar alliance partner, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), as well as civil society groups have argued that wide portions of Bihar’s population will not be able to provide citizenship documents within the short window they have to justify their right to vote, and would be left disenfranchised.

Critics say the move is a backdoor route to implement the controversial National Register of Citizens (NRC) that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has proposed in the past as a way to identify “illegal immigrants” and deport them. The move comes at a time when thousands of largely Bengali-speaking Muslims have been rounded up mainly in Assam, and many of them have been deported from India as alleged Bangladeshi immigrants in the last few weeks. That such a move affects Muslims disproportionately should come as no surprise, thanks to India’s amended citizenship laws, which fast-track citizenship for Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis and Christians, while leaving Muslims out of it. The laws, approved in 2019 by the Indian Parliament, were operationalised last year in March by the Modi government, and will help non-Muslims avoid deportation and jail if found to be staying without documents.

References: Indian Citizens, Mostly Muslims, Are Bearing Brunt of Its Citizenship Screening Drive. (2025, July 23). The Diplomat. Purohit, K. (2025, July 10). Why is India forcing 80 million people to justify their right to vote? Al Jazeera.

Wildfires across Europe amidst record summer heat

Southern Europe and Turkey are enduring one of the worst wildfire seasons in recent memory, with blazes fueled by record-breaking heat, prolonged drought, and strong winds. In Turkey—particularly in İzmir, Bursa, Hatay, Sakarya, and Bilecik—more than 50,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires destroyed homes, farmland, and forests. At least 15–17 people have died, including firefighters and civilians, and key infrastructure like İzmir Adnan Menderes Airport was temporarily shut down due to heavy smoke. Similar fire emergencies erupted in Greece—especially near Athens, Crete, Evia, and Kythera—as well as Cyprus, Albania, Bulgaria, France (notably in the Corbières region), Montenegro, and even the UK, where the number of fires and area burned surpassed previous records. The extreme heat has also resulted in heavy rain and strong winds sweeoing across parts of Croatia, Serbia, Pland and Belgium.

Climate scientists and emergency responders emphasize that these wildfires and related extreme weather events are a clear manifestation of human-driven warming. Temperatures in the region have soared far above seasonal norms—Turkey recorded a new national high of 50.5 °C, while Greece, Spain, Portugal, and southern France regularly exceeded 40–44 °C. According to the European Forest Fire Information System, emissions from these fires and the areas burned have reached record highs well beyond historical data averages. Experts warn that such fire events, once projected for 2050, are now occurring years ahead of schedule, underscoring the urgent need to adapt to rapidly intensifying fire weather conditions caused by climate change. 

References: Wildfires grip Southern Europe as heat wave intensifies. (2025, July 29). Anadolu Ajansı.

Kabul to become first major global city without water by 2030

Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital of approximately seven million residents, is on the verge of becoming the first modern city to completely run out of water by 2030, according to a dire warning from non-profit Mercy Corps and United Nations projections. Over the past decade, groundwater levels have plunged by 25 to 30 meters, and the city is extracting 44 million cubic meters more water annually than it can naturally replenish. Nearly half of Kabul’s boreholes are already dry, and as many as 80% of remaining wells contain unsafe levels of salinity, sewage, arsenic, or other toxins, posing severe public health risks. Residents struggle to access basic water—some spend up to 30% of their household income on buying water from tankers, while others endure long waits at public taps or travel long distances to fetch limited supplies. The water shortage is further compounded by climate change. Recent years have seen a significant reduction in precipitation across the country.

If the current trend continues, Kabul’s aquifers will become dry by 2030, posing an existential threat to the Afghan capital, according to the report. This could cause the displacement of some three million Afghan residents, it said. Experts attribute the crisis to a combination of rapid urbanization, climate change, decades of conflict that disrupted governance and infrastructure planning, and dwindling international aid since the Taliban takeover in 2021. Two decades of US-led military intervention in Afghanistan also played a role in the crisis, as it forced more people to move to Kabul while governance in the rest of the country suffered. Without immediate investment in sustainable solutions—such as artificial groundwater recharge, river pipelines (e.g., the Panjshir project), check dams, and upgraded distribution infrastructure—humanitarian agencies warn of mass displacement, increased poverty, and systemic collapse in Kabul.

References: Kumar, R. (2025, July 5). ‘End is near’: Will Kabul become first big city without water by 2030? Al Jazeera.

Bangladesh set to celebrate one year of revolution that toppled Hasina

After the interim government of Dr. Mohammad Yunus took over the reins of government following the fall of a brutal fifteen-year regime led by Sheikh Hasina in a popular revolt last August, Bangladesh is set to celebrate a year of the revolution. The past year has seen many changes, as well as some shortcomings. On the one hand, several institutional reforms have been initiated with the establishment of 11 reform commissions covering constitutional, electoral, anti-corruption, police, judiciary, women’s affairs, and other key sectors, laying the groundwork for more participatory governance. The government has rightly been praised for its efforts to pay off foreign debts, as well as boost confidence of migrant Bangladeshis to maintain a high level of income from flow of remittance. The government has also successfully been able to start judicial processes to bring about the trial for the victims of the July uprising, although the process has been much slower than anticipated. On the other hand, there is still work to be done in some sectors, such as policing and maintaining of law and order, which has been a challenge due to the presence of remnants of the previous Awami regime on the streets as well as within the administration. A stark reminder of the scale of reforms required occurred when a recent BAF training plane crash, which killed tens of children at a school in July, exposed the corruption, aging equipment, and indecisiveness plaguing the heart of the Bangladesh military.

On August 5, 2025, celebrations were held throughout the country through processions and elaborate programs, as well as colourful exhibitions. The highlight of the day was the reading of the July Declaration by Mohammad Yunus in front of political leaders and parties in front of the National Parliament building. The event was also attended by thousands of common people who bore witness to this historical declaration. The July Declaration recounted how the anti-discrimination student movement turned into a mass uprising following state violence, resulting in nearly a thousand deaths, and presented a comprehensive political statement charting Bangladesh’s long history of struggles for democracy and condemning the 16-year rule of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina as fascist, repressive and corrupt. Regarding elections, the Yunus led interim government has also pledged to carry out free and fair elections within February 2026; the issue has been a crucial one for political parties – BNP has been demanding immediate elections at the earliest, while parties such as the newly floated National Citizen’s Party (NCP) and Jamaat-e-Islami have been calling for major reforms before the declaration of national elections to create a more level playing field.

References: Bangladesh interim govt makes July declaration. (2025, August 5). New Age. On revolution anniversary, Bangladesh’s Yunus announces national elections. (2025, August 5). Al Jazeera. Flying Coffins and Broken Systems: The F-7 Disaster in Bangladesh. (2025, July 29). The Diplomat.