The Future March 2025 Issue

ISSN 2753-3670

The Future is a newsletter periodically published by The Future Institute from First Floor, East, Business Centre, 93 Greenfield Rd, London E1 1EJ. This newsletter aims to chronicle the major events and developments in the societies of the emerging nations with the potential of impacting their future. This publication offers snippets of news analysis that might be advantageous to the academics, policymakers, social and political workers, students and various organisations.

Contributing Editors: Mohammad Hossain, Dr Nazmus Sakib and Dr Faroque Amin

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Trump and Israel continue attempts to sabotage Gaza ceasefire

Following the Qatar negotiated ceasefire agreement agreed between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian resistance group has since released a number of Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip since the 7 October attack in exchange for Palestinian hostages held in Israeli prisons as part of the first phase of the ceasefire. Following numerous Israeli violations of the terms of the ceasefire, Hamas had announced the suspension of the release of Israeli hostages on 10 February, but resumed it after Netanyahu and Trump threatened to restart fighting in Gaza. On 22 February, despite Hamas releasing six Israeli hostages, Israel refused to release the 600 Palestinian hostages, on grounds that Hamas was using the release of Israeli hostages for propaganda. On 25 February, Israel and Hamas reached a deal to exchange the bodies of Israeli hostages who were agreed to be handed over during the first phase for releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners without public ceremony. On 1 March, the day the first phase of the ceasefire was scheduled to end, Hamas rejected an Israeli proposal to extend it to release more hostages, demanding the implementation of the second phase. Following Hamas's refusal to accept the US proposal contrary to the original ceasefire agreement, Netanyahu ceased the entry of aid to Gaza the next day, leaving hundreds of thousands of Gazans without food or water during the hard days of Ramadan. The humanitarian aid blockade has been condemned by mediators, namely Egypt, as a violation of the ceasefire, which stipulated that phase one would automatically be extended as long as phase two negotiations were in progress.

The ceasefire is being repeatedly jeopardized by the actions of US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly stated his intention to displace the Palestinian population of Gaza, saying several times that they should be resettled in neighboring Arab countries such as Jordan and Egypt. During his early February meeting with Netanyahu, Trump proposed a US takeover of Gaza, a position Trump reiterated in a meeting with Jordanian king Abdullah. So far, Arab governments have rejected Trump's transfer plan, instead backing an Egyptian proposal. The Arab League, meeting on 4 March in Cairo, devised a $53bn plan detailing the reconstruction of Gaza while keeping its population in place, a figure which was suggested by the UN as being necessary to re-build Gaza from its current devastated state. Analysts have opined that the Trump plan for permanent displacement is not just tantamount to ethnic cleansing, but that it was tantamount to a death sentence for any Arab regime which would be willing to take part in its execution. Trump’s unabashed backing for Israel and Netanyahu has only made the latter bolder. Days after the Gaza ceasefire took hold, the Israeli military launched its largest offensive in years in the occupied West Bank in the cities of Jenin, Tulkarm and Nablus, displacing tens of thousands of Palestinians and announcing that the tanks and military presence on the ground would continue for now. This expansionist attitude with impunity has been observed in the Israeli army’s tendencies towards ceasefire violations in Lebanon and Gaza, as well as significantly increasing and expanding its military presence in southern Syria, raising regional tensions and drawing international condemnation and scrutiny.

References: ABC News. (2025, February 11). Trump says he could withhold aid from Jordan and Egypt if they reject his Gaza development plan. Gaza war. (2025, March 9). Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved March 9, 2025, from Israel won’t allow Syria military forces south of Damascus: Netanyahu. (2025, February 23). Al Jazeera. Mitrovica, A. (2025, February 7). Trump’s foul solution to the Palestinian problem was aided by Biden, too. Al Jazeera. Reuters.com. (2025, March 6). reuters.com. Trump posts bizarre AI video of a rebuilt Gaza with Netanyahu, musk. (2025, February 26). Al Jazeera. UN estimates over $53B for Gaza Strip's recovery, reconstruction needs. (2025, February 11). Anadolu Ajansı.

Surge in global activism against Israeli genocide

In recent months, a surge in global activism has emerged, challenging alleged Israeli genocide and impunity in Gaza and the West Bank, and calling into account the international supporters of Zionist genocide. The U.S.-based human rights organization Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) has formally requested the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate former President Joe Biden, along with ex-Secretary of State Antony Blinken and former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, for their complicity in Israeli war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. The 172-page submission urges the ICC to investigate these officials and their publicly documented role in providing military, political, and diplomatic support to Israel, facilitating severe offenses, including arms transfers and diplomatic protection, despite awareness of an ongoing genocide in contradiction to international law.

While public opinion within Israel has largely been supportive of Israeli genocidal actions, diaspora Jewish organizations have taken the lead in protesting against Israel’s actions in Palestine. Among the latest of such activities is a full-page ad in The New York Times titled, “Jewish People Say No to Ethnic Cleansing!” by a group called Jews for Shared Safety, where well-known Jewish figures, including actor Joaquin Phoenix, playwright Tony Kushner, and comedian Ilana Glazer, joined 350 rabbis on Thursday to call for an end to US President Donald Trump's plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza. On the other hand, the documentary titled "No Other Land," co-directed by Palestinian activist Basel Adra and Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham, recently won the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. The film chronicles settler violence and the Israeli demolitions of Palestinian homes in the occupied West Bank.

In another instance, the BBC has come under heavy criticism for pulling a documentary titled Gaza: How to Survive a War Zone from its online streaming platform, after caving in to Zionist pressure. The documentary was a nine-month depiction of life in Gaza under siege through the eyes and experiences of Palestinian children. The primary objection of the Zionists was that Abdullah, the main child narrator, was the son of Ayman Alyazouri, the deputy minister of agriculture in Gaza’s Hamas-run government. Although the BBC had amended the programme to acknowledge this, further accusations led to it being dropped. A petition to restore the documentary has included prominent actors and TV personalities. These developments underscore a growing cultural and global political movement challenging Israeli genocide and the complicity of international actors in it.

References: British celebrities call on BBC to restore Gaza documentary. (2025, February 26). Middle East Eye. By pulling Gaza film, BBC shows it cannot stand up to Israel. (2025, February 24). Middle East Eye. Staff, A. J. (2025, March 3). What Oscar-winning no other land is about and where you can watch it. Al Jazeera. US rights group urges ICC to probe Biden for aiding Israeli war crimes in Gaza. (2025, February 24). Middle East Eye. ‘Jews say no to ethnic cleansing’: Hundreds of rabbis and artists reject Trump's Gaza plan. (2025, February 13). Middle East Eye.

Ukraine and NATO in disarray after Trump’s takes U-turn on Ukraine issue

President Donald Trump's recent actions regarding Ukraine have marked a significant departure from previous U.S. foreign policy, eliciting varied reactions from allies and foes alike. On March 3, 2025, President Trump ordered an indefinite suspension of over $1 billion in U.S. military aid to Ukraine, expressing his dissatisfaction with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's commitment to peace negotiations with Russia. The suspension followed an earlier meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at the White House, which devolved into a heated exchange, where Zelensky faced an extraordinary dressing down in front of the world's media, after Trump and his Vice-President JD Vance demanded that the former show more gratitude for years of US support. Following visits by French President Emannuel Macron and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer earlier in the week, the Ukrainian president had been hoping to conclude his White House visit with positive talks with Donald Trump, capped with the signing of a minerals deal giving the US a real stake in his country's future, if not an outright security guarantee. Instead, however, following the showdown, Zelensky was eventually told to leave the White House early before he and Trump could even take the stage for a scheduled news conference.

Following the meeting, several European states, including the UK and France voiced their steadfast support for Ukraine. Following the White House debacle, a conference of EU leaders was held in London, after which British PM Starmer confirmed that the UK, France and Ukraine would work on a peace plan that would be presented to the US and that the White House would continue to be part of the process. Recently, in his speech to Congress, President Trump defended his approach, emphasizing the need for European nations to assume greater responsibility for regional security and reiterating his commitment to an "America First" foreign policy. He also expressed openness to renegotiating terms of support with Ukraine, contingent upon their willingness to engage in meaningful peace talks with Russia. The recent developments have raised concerns about Ukraine's defense capabilities and the broader geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe with the global military retreat of the United States.

References: How the Trump-zelensky talks collapsed in 10 fiery minutes. (2025, February 28). BBC Breaking News, World News, US News, Sports, Business, Innovation, Climate, Culture, Travel, Video & Audio. Reis, P. (2025, February 28). The big Trump-zelenskyy blowup, briefly explained. Vox. Rogers, A. (2025, March 2). UK to defend Ukraine peace deal with 'coalition of willing', Starmer says. Sky News. Trump 2.0: Great power politics and the New World order. (2025, February 19). The Diplomat – Asia-Pacific Current Affairs Magazine. UN General Assembly adopts resolution calling for lasting peace in Ukraine. (2025, February). Anadolu Ajansı.

Trump meets Modi: Failure or success?

President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had convened this February at the White House to discuss strengthening bilateral ties, focusing on trade, defense, and regional stability. However, experts opined that despite public displays of camaraderie, the meeting yielded limited substantive progress, particularly concerning defence, trade disputes and tariffs. President Trump criticized India's high tariffs, labeling them "unfair" and restrictive to US market access. He emphasized the need for a "level playing field," reiterated plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on countries imposing duties on US imports, and called India the biggest tariff abuser. In response, Prime Minister Modi announced India's intention to reduce tariffs on select US products, including lowering duties on certain motorcycles from 50% to 40%, although the move appeared appeasing rather than well-thought out. There were also talks to strengthen defense ties, with the U.S. proposing increased military sales to India, including advanced aircraft such as the F-35 stealth fighter jet. They also discussed establishing a new 10-year framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership, aiming to enhance military cooperation across air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace domains. This is seen by many as another backfoot move by India, which has traditionally sought Russian and European assistance in this regard, but is now almost being forced by the Trump administration to rely more on the US and buy US weaponry.

Another interesting aspect was Trump’s comments on Bangladesh. During the joint press conference, President Trump was questioned about the United States' stance on the political crisis in Bangladesh, especially the role of the American deep state. He denied any role for the American deep state and deflected the question, stating, "I'll leave Bangladesh to the Prime Minister," thereby sidestepping direct involvement. According to some, this indicated deference to India's regional leadership, while others were of the opinion that this indicated a failure of the Indian and Awami League lobbying that they could not elicit a strong critical statement on Bangladesh from the US President. Despite the leaders' effervescent expressions of camaraderie and talk of strategic partnership, the meeting concluded without significant breakthroughs. The United States maintained its stance on implementing reciprocal tariffs, and while India offered some concessions, substantial disagreements on trade policies persisted.

References: Former US diplomat explains Trump's 'I'll leave Bangladesh to Modi' comment. (2025, February 14). The Business Standard. How Narendra Modi quietly relented to Trump’s tariff demands. (2025, February 12). The Times and The Sunday Times. Modi-Trump deal exposes India's strategic dilemma. (2025, February). MSN - Express Tribune. Trump denies US deep state role in Bangladesh regime change, passes question to Modi. (2025, February 14). The Business Standard.

Why is Trump targeting South Africa with sanctions?

Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a freeze on all foreign aid to South Africa citing a South African law that allegedly allows land to be forcibly seized from white farmers. Trump also called for the U.S. to accept Afrikaner refugees to protect them from "government-sponsored race-based discrimination". Trump said he was bringing in the aid freeze because of South Africa's new land law, which he said was violating white South African minority's rights. Land ownership has long been a contentious issue in South Africa with most private farmland owned by white people, 30 years after the end of the racist system of apartheid. There have been continuous calls for the government to address land reform and deal with the past injustices of racial segregation. South Africa's new law allows for expropriation without compensation only in circumstances where it is "just and equitable and in the public interest" to do so. Apart from this, many health service programs in South Africa have also been shuttered due to freeze in USAID funding from the US, which is important in addressing the country’s AIDS problem, and has adversely affected many patients who were dependent on these programs.

However, many cite a more disturbing reason behind Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s targeting of South Africa - its international court case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. Experts have noted that in lieu of South Africa’s unwavering commitment to dismantling oppression though the ICC case, it is facing retribution from the US and Israel lobby. That the same Trump, who condemns land redistribution in South Africa, has spent his political career endorsing and legitimising Israeli land grabs in Palestine is an irony not lost on many present-day observers. And South Africa has not cowed down or stopped its support for Palestine - On 31 January, South Africa announced the formation of The Hague Group with eight other countries that resolved to act in solidarity with Palestine through a concrete set of shared commitments. The members say they refuse to remain passive in the face of international crime committed by Israel. The countries are Belize, Bolivia, Colombia, Cuba, Honduras, Malaysia, Namibia, Senegal as well as South Africa. Earlier, Trump had also signed an executive order imposing sanctions on ICC officials that assist investigations into U.S. citizens or those of its allies, namely Israel.

References: From South Africa to Palestine: Trump's war to defend apartheid. (2025, February 11). Middle East Eye. Joseph Chirume ــ South Africa. (2025, February 7). South Africa vows support for Palestine despite Trump threats. The New Arab. Trump signs executive order targeting South Africa over land law. (2025, February 8). BBC Breaking News, World News, US News, Sports, Business, Innovation, Climate, Culture, Travel, Video & Audio. Trump signs order imposing sanctions on International Criminal Court over investigations of Israel. (2025, February 9). AP News.

Far right gains major ground in German elections

The recent elections have reshaped Germany's political landscape. The conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance, led by Friedrich Merz, came in first, securing 28.5% of the vote, which translated to 208 seats in the Bundestag. The second largest party turned out to be the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which garnered 20.8% of the vote, increasing its parliamentary representation from 83 to 152 seats. The AfD's ascent from the fringes marks a significant shift in German politics. It has capitalized on growing public discontent over issues such as immigration, economic policies, and environmental regulations. Their success was particularly pronounced in the eastern states, where they emerged as the dominant political force. Conversely, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, experienced a significant decline as they came in third, securing only 16.4% of the vote and 120 seats, down from 206 in the previous election.

The CDU/CSU have ruled out a coalition with the far-right AfD, and coalition talks have commenced between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. Collectively, they hold 328 of the 630 Bundestag seats, sufficient for a majority. Initial discussions have been described as promising, focusing on reconciling differing views on border control, migration, citizenship laws, unemployment benefits, and corporate taxation. An interesting aspect pertaining to the German elections has been Elon Musk's controversial involvement in favour of the far-right AfD. Utilizing his social media platform, X, Musk openly endorsed the AfD, asserting that "only the AfD can save Germany." He also participated in a livestream with Alice Weidel, praising her as "very reasonable" and urging Germans to support the AfD. Musk's engagement extended to a virtual appearance at an AfD rally, where he controversially suggested that Germany should move beyond its historical guilt, a statement that drew widespread criticism, especially given its timing near Holocaust Remembrance Day.

References: Conservative opposition wins German election and the far right is 2nd with strongest postwar result. (2025, February 24). AP News. Germany’s CDU and SPD to start coalition talks Friday. (2025, February 27). POLITICO.

China brings out 6th generation fighters: Major challenge to US hegemony in Asia

In a major military development, China test-flew its J-36 and J-XX sixth-generation fighter jets last December, showcasing its leap in air combat technology. As tailless aircraft integrating artificial intelligence, stealth technology, hypersonic speed, and high-power electronic warfare capabilities, these Chinese fighter jets have already surpassed U.S. and Russian developments. The J-36 and J-XX prototypes are much larger than the U.S. F-35s or F-22s; the diamond-shaped and tailless aircraft are designed for long-range stealth and high survivability in contested environments. With a combat range of over 2,500 kilometers, they would be able to strike U.S. military bases in Guam and Diego Garcia and extend as far north as Alaska. The triple engine configuration and spacious interior provide enormous power output—approximately 1 MW—for the use of high-energy radar, electronic warfare, and possibly directed energy systems, which makes China well poised to re-shape dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.

Compared to U.S. fighter planes that focus on maneuverability, China's new fighter planes focus on endurance, electrical power, and network-centric warfare. These planes act as command centers for swarms of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs), exponentially expanding their operational reach. The focus on larger airframes and energy capacity suggests shifting towards electronic and cyber warfare dominance, rather than the traditional dogfighting as seen in the case of US and Russian military jets. As China inducts more carrier-based fighters, hypersonic missiles, and advanced drones into its military strategy, the Indo-Pacific region faces a growing challenge to U.S. air superiority, potentially altering the future of global aerial combat. Experts have opined that this makes the reliance of regional powers such as India on US fighter jets a futile exercise, since by the time India gets the rather expensive F-35's, they are already behind the Chinese in terms of superiority and latest in military aircraft generational technology.

References: China’s 6th-Generation fighter: Potential game changer for air superiority in Asia? (2025, February 24). The Diplomat – Asia-Pacific Current Affairs Magazine.

UN Report Accuses Former Hasina Government of Heinous Crimes During 2024 Protests

The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has released a comprehensive report detailing severe human rights violations committed by Bangladesh's former government led by Sheikh Hasina during the student-led protests between July and August 2024. The report was welcomed by the Bangladeshi interim government's chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, as well as chief political parties the BNP and Jamaat. According to the investigation, based on over 250 interviews and extensive digital evidence, the report estimated that up to 1,400 individuals were killed, with thousands more injured or detained. The report stated that security forces, including the police, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), and the military, employed disproportionate force against unarmed protesters. This is clear from the fact that approximately 78% of the over 1,000 deaths resulted from gunfire, with many victims shot at close range. Moreover, over 11,700 individuals were detained without due process, facing beatings, torture, and ill-treatment. Many were held incommunicado, denied legal representation, and subjected to enforced disappearances.

Women, children, journalists, and human rights defenders were specifically targeted. Children accounted for approximately 12-13% of the deaths, and numerous reports indicate sexual violence against women by security forces. Journalists faced harassment, injury, and detention, with several media outlets censored or shut down. In order to prevent news from being relayed within the country and to the outside world, the government had imposed internet shutdowns and media censorship to control the narrative and limit public awareness of the ongoing violations. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk reiterated the findings of the OHCHR fact-finding team, calling them an essential tool for justice. Turk criticised the former Bangladeshi government's response to the protests and had been at the forefront of urging it to respect the rights of all citizens, particularly in allowing the freedom to assemble peacefully and express dissent. The report was also backed by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch, who voiced recommendations from the UN report calling on the Bangladeshi government to hold investigations, ensure justice for victims and provide for reparations.

References: OHCHR report on 2024 protests in Bangladesh. (2025, March 1). Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved March 8, 2025, from UN rights office estimates up to 1,400 killed in crackdown on protests in Bangladesh. (2025, February 12). AP News.

Terror group PKK to heed Ocalan’s call for peace

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has declared an immediate ceasefire in its four-decade-long conflict with Turkey, responding to an appeal from its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to disarm and dissolve the organization. On February 27, 2025, Ocalan, who has been incarcerated since 1999, issued a message from his prison cell urging the PKK to convene a congress to disband and lay down arms. Calling for disarmament, Ocalan had appealed to members of the PKK in a letter read out by Dem party members Ahmet Turk and Pervin Buldan in both Kurdish and Turkish. He said "all groups must lay down their arms and the PKK must dissolve itself", adding that his movement was formed primarily because "the channels of democratic politics were closed". However, with the efforts of leaders like MHP’s Bahceli, backed by positive signals from Erdogan and other political parties, the right environment for the PKK to lay down its arms had been created, Ocalan added. The peace initiative between the Turkish state and the PKK, which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies, was started in October by Turkish President Erdogan’s coalition partner, MHP’s leader Devlet Bahceli, who suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if his group renounces violence and disbands.

Erdogan welcomed the developments and said that Ocalan’s message was a “new phase” in peace efforts in Turkey. Ocalan’s call has the potential to end a conflict that has resulted in over 40,000 deaths since 1984, and rippled across the borders of multiple neighboring countries. The conflict between the PKK and Turkey has had devastating effects on Turkey and neighbors. Ocalan’s call for peace on Thursday marked a major turning point and could have far-reaching implications for the Middle East. As per analysts, this groundbreaking announcement by the PKK comes against the backdrop of fundamental changes in the region, including the reconfiguration of power in neighboring Syria after the toppling of President Bashar Assad, the weakening of the Hezbollah militant movement in Lebanon and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. An earlier ceasefire between the PKK and Ankara broke down in 2015, prompting a period of violent attacks and reprisals across northern Iraq, Turkey and Syria that claimed thousands of lives. The International Crisis Group estimates that since 2015, 7,152 people have been killed in clashes or terror attacks in Turkey and northern Iraq, including 646 civilians, 1,494 members of the Turkish security forces and 4,786 militants.

References: Kourdi, E., Lilieholm, L., & Lau, C. (2025, March 1). Kurdish militia declares ceasefire following leader’s call to end five-decade insurgency with Turkey. CNN. Kurdish PKK militants declare a ceasefire in 40-year insurgency in Turkey. (2025, March 1). AP News. PKK declares ceasefire with Turkey after more than 40 years of conflict. (2025, March 1). the Guardian.

Amidst hardship and adversary, Muslims worldwide start celebrating holy month of Ramadan

Muslims around the world marked the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan in March, where they will observe the fast by refraining from eating and drinking from dawn to dusk every day for an entire month to achieve greater “taqwa”, or consciousness of God, and purification of the soul. Muslims in Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries started fasting the month on Saturday the first of March. This included Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, the Palestinian territories, Sudan, Tunisia, as well as Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim-majority country. Some other nations, such as Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and South Africa, began observing Ramadan on March 2. This year’s Ramadan comes amidst some momentous events – the end of the war in Syria following decades of Assad family rule, a fragile ceasefire in Gaza where the first phase has ended and the next one is yet unsure, following fifteen months of an Israeli-sponsored genocide which has killed more than 40,000 people, as well as the first Ramadan in Bangladesh after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic government through a popular revolution.

In many parts of the world, Muslims are increasingly becoming victims of social and state-sponsored oppression that is actively affecting and inhibiting their ability in safely exercising their religious customs and traditions this Ramadan. In Australia, a major police investigation began following an alleged Christchurch-style shooting threat to a mosque in Edmonson Park, Western Sydney, referring to the 2019 attack on a Christchurch mosque in New Zealand, where Australian-born Brenton Tarrant killed 51 people after storming the building and opening fire, all while live-streaming the heinous act. According to authorities, the treat was being seriously addressed by police authorities and has elicited condemnation from Australian PM Anthony Albanese and NSW Premier Chris Minns. In France, the Coordination Council of Turkish Muslims of France (CCMTF), Ibrahim Alci, sent a letter to the French Interior Ministry to request enhanced security measures for Muslim places of worship in France, amidst Muslim concerns about the rise in hostile acts targeting mosques. Moreover, the French Football Federation (FFF) is under fire after banning Muslim players from fasting during Ramadan while training with the national squad — sparking accusations of discrimination and dividing the team. This is not an isolated incident – French authorities have also slapped a discriminatory hijab ban on French female athletes competing in sports, a move that has faced heavy criticism as well. On the other hand, Muslims in India face hurdles in praying and fasting as the local government in some places asked Muslims to pray indoors for the coming Friday in light of the Hindu Holi celebrations, where paint will be splashed all across buildings and people – several mosques in Shahjahanpur, Uttar Pradesh have been covered by tarpauline sheets ahead of Holi processions to ‘maintain the peace.’

References: 16yo boy arrested after Western Sydney mosque threatened with Christchurch-style shooting. (2025, March 5). Nationwide news. Alami, A. (2025, March 3). France bans Muslim players from fasting during Ramadan. Morocco World News. Chughtai, A. (2025, March 4). A simple illustrated guide to Ramadan, answers to 10 common questions. Al Jazeera. Coordination Council of Turkish Muslims of France urges increased security for mosques. (2025, February 27). Anadolu Ajansı. Mosques In Shahjahanpur Covered Ahead of ‘Laat Sahab’ Holi, Security Tightened. (2025, March). MSN. What is Ramadan and how do Muslims observe the Islamic holy month? (2025, February 28). AP News.

As climate change sets in, world’s frozen seas and glaciers melting at alarming rate

Arctic sea-ice is currently at its smallest recorded extent for the time of year, while Antarctic sea-ice is close to a new low in satellite records going back to the late 1970s. Data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) revealed that both the Arctic and Antarctic experienced significant reductions in sea ice cover. Arctic sea ice was 8% below average, while Antarctic sea ice was 26% below average for the month. Moreover, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported that the average Arctic sea ice extent for February 2025 was 13.75 million square kilometers, marking the lowest February extent in the 47-year satellite record. This decline was attributed to unusually warm temperatures in the Arctic, with some regions experiencing temperatures up to 12°C above average. All this shows that the world's frozen oceans, which help to keep the planet cool, currently have less ice than ever previously recorded, an indelible mark of global warming.

Concurrently, the world's glaciers are melting faster than ever recorded under the impact of climate change, according to the most comprehensive scientific analysis to date. Over the past decade or so, glacier losses were more than a third higher than during the period 2000-2011. The study, published in the scientific journal Nature, combined more than 230 regional estimates from 35 research teams around the world, making scientists even more confident about exactly how fast glaciers are melting, and how they will evolve in the future. The consequences of glacial melting go beyond local changes to landscapes and ecosystems – not only does the sources of fresh water dwindle up, but even small increases to global sea-level can play a big role in increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. With increasing climate change, global sea-levels have already risen by more than 20cm (8in) since 1900, with around half of that coming since the early 1990s, and faster increases are expected in the decades ahead.

References: Climate change: World's glaciers melting faster than ever recorded. (2025, February 19). BBC News. Global sea ice hit record low in February, scientists say. (2025, March 6). the Guardian. World's sea-ice falls to record low. (2025, February 15). BBC News.

New political party forms with the students who ousted Hasina: BNP’s popularity to fall under public scrutiny, Jamaat might lose its inevitability

With high expectations, a new political party has been formed under the leadership of Nahid Islam, who led the student protest that toppled Hasina in August 24. Their debut will undoubtedly make the political landscape more intriguing in the days ahead. The BNP and Jamaat will need to carefully consider their future strategies moving forward.

Finally, the much-discussed Bangladesh Citizen Party (BCP) has made its debut through a grand event. In the late afternoon of February 2025, the party leader Nahid’s slogan “People, or power; People, people” resonated along the Manik Mia Avenue Road in front of the National Parliament. This news has been widely covered in all major national and international media outlets. In the international media, BCP has been introduced as “a party formed by students who ousted Hasina.”

The newest party in Bangladesh began its journey with the announcement of a 171-member convening committee. With the July coup, it was only a matter of time before BCP’s emergence came to pass, in line with the political shifting of Bangladesh.

Historically, although the Bangladeshi democratic system has been carried forward by the two main political parties—Awami League and BNP— the coup on July 24 not only ensured the oust of the fascist Awami League but perhaps has buried it for good. The people of Bangladesh seem to have spontaneously rejected the Awami League.

In this context, while it is believed that the remaining two popular parties in Bangladesh, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, will struggle for power among themselves, BCP’s emergence has shifted the power struggle into a different dimension altogether. Historically, the combined vote share of BNP, Jamaat, and Awami League in Bangladesh has been 60-70 percent. Outside of that, about 25-30 percent are swing votes. It is preliminarily estimated that after the departure of Awami League from the political scene, BNP may form a government with an absolute majority. On the other hand, considering the influence of the former Shibir within the predecessor of BCP, Jatiyo Nagorik Committee, Jamaat hoped to gain more votes than before. They believed that even if they could not come to power, they would be able to secure a place as a strong opposition party in the National Parliament.

However, before the formation of BCP, its Shibir faction became inactive. At least several influential former Shibir leaders announced that they will not join BCP. While this may not significantly benefit or harm Jamaat, it seems likely that BCP’s popularity will increase as a result. One reason for this is the swing voters. A large portion of swing voters are searching for an alternative party to the Awami League. In the past, BNP has been the default option in such cases, but this time the situation is different. Due to various incorrect decisions, actions, and statements from BNP after August 5, their popularity is declining. As a result, BCP could position itself as a centrist party that swing voters might trust.

From 1979 to 2008, the BNP participated in five national elections, receiving an average of 15 million votes, which accounts for 36% of the total electorate. Their highest vote tally during this period was 23 million. In comparison, the Awami League (AL) took part in eight elections from 1970 to 2008, averaging 16 million votes with a share of 44%. Their peak vote count was 34 million in 2008. During the same timeframe, the BJI participated in five national polls, garnering an average of 2,955,812 votes, which represents 7% of the total.

In 2024, Bangladesh registered approximately 121.7 million r voters. This suggests that around 100 million voters could be considered swing voters, including those who typically support the Awami League. Even if we allocate a portion of Awami votes to the BNP, their estimated support would not exceed 55 million. This leaves about 65 million voters as potential swing voters.

While initial public perceptions suggest that BNP could win the upcoming elections by a huge margin and form the government, the potential of BCP cannot be completely dismissed. This will depend on BCP’s public relations; maintaining the popularity of Nahid, Hasanat, and Sarjis; Akhtar's strategic role, and how well it can connect with the middle class and low-wage communty in the country.

It is not entirely impossible that if swing voters cast their votes for BCP, it could result in a miracle for the party and the future of Bangladesh. However, along with this situation, it may also become clearer in the coming days that Jamaat’s role in Bangladeshi politics is unlikely to remain very strong or decisive. In the upcoming days, we may witness a three-way conflict in Bangladeshi politics with the participation of BNP and Jamaat. However, it would be wise to wait at least another six months to know who will be able to form the government.